The “Southern Surge” – Tennessee Exceeds Education Expectations
Sep 4, 2025 by FACT
As education scores continue on a downward trajectory for most of the nation, Tennessee and other southern states are defying expectations in what has been labeled the “Southern Surge in Education” in a recent report by the National Review.
The 2025 National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), known as the nation’s report card, uncovered that fourth-grade reading comprehension is at its lowest in 20 years – 40% of students scored below basic proficiency, the National Review report notes. Eighth-grade reading is also at a historic low, with over 33% of students below basic proficiency. These scores don’t take into account what some would argue are the larger issues – chronic student absenteeism, rampant grade inflation, and pervasive misbehavior.
So, where does Tennessee stand in all of this?
A Harvard-Stanford research collaboration known as the Education Recovery Scorecard, which reports how well states have recovered from COVID-19 shutdowns, reports that Tennessee ranked third in math recovery and ninth in reading recovery, alongside other southern states with similarly “miraculous” recovery rates.
Of course, it’s not a miracle. It’s common-sense education policies in action. States listed in the Southern Surge all reopened schools during the pandemic, while liberal states remained on tight lockdown. By September 2020, nearly all Tennessee schools were back to in-person learning. Conservative states knew that students would not thrive in an online learning environment, and they were right.
In addition to in-person learning, the root of the Southern Surge results are what you might expect – a return to traditional education principles rooted in science, not woke ideology.
For example, states that focused on “phonics-based early-literacy instruction” scored far better in reading comprehension than states that use a “three-cueing system,” which teaches students to use context to understand words rather than sounding them out. Tennessee’s reading program, Reading 360, is focused on “the science of reading,” which is “a research-based method of teaching children phonics and how to decode the structure of a word in order to read it correctly.” The results speak for themselves.
In July, Tennessee’s Department of Education released the 2024-25 Tennessee Comprehensive Assessment Program (TCAP) results. Here are the highlights:
Southern Surge states also proved that more money does not necessarily mean better education. Consider the comparison from National Review below:
We’re proud to see Tennessee rise to the top in education by returning to common-sense policies and rejecting woke ideology. We hope the rest of the nation can learn from the Southern Surge!
The 2025 National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), known as the nation’s report card, uncovered that fourth-grade reading comprehension is at its lowest in 20 years – 40% of students scored below basic proficiency, the National Review report notes. Eighth-grade reading is also at a historic low, with over 33% of students below basic proficiency. These scores don’t take into account what some would argue are the larger issues – chronic student absenteeism, rampant grade inflation, and pervasive misbehavior.
So, where does Tennessee stand in all of this?
A Harvard-Stanford research collaboration known as the Education Recovery Scorecard, which reports how well states have recovered from COVID-19 shutdowns, reports that Tennessee ranked third in math recovery and ninth in reading recovery, alongside other southern states with similarly “miraculous” recovery rates.
Of course, it’s not a miracle. It’s common-sense education policies in action. States listed in the Southern Surge all reopened schools during the pandemic, while liberal states remained on tight lockdown. By September 2020, nearly all Tennessee schools were back to in-person learning. Conservative states knew that students would not thrive in an online learning environment, and they were right.
In addition to in-person learning, the root of the Southern Surge results are what you might expect – a return to traditional education principles rooted in science, not woke ideology.
For example, states that focused on “phonics-based early-literacy instruction” scored far better in reading comprehension than states that use a “three-cueing system,” which teaches students to use context to understand words rather than sounding them out. Tennessee’s reading program, Reading 360, is focused on “the science of reading,” which is “a research-based method of teaching children phonics and how to decode the structure of a word in order to read it correctly.” The results speak for themselves.
In July, Tennessee’s Department of Education released the 2024-25 Tennessee Comprehensive Assessment Program (TCAP) results. Here are the highlights:
- English Language Arts (ELA): Most tested grades showed gains in proficiency, including a nearly four percentage point increase in both English I and English II.
- Math: Proficiency increased in every grade level, including a gain of more than five percentage points for 6th-grade students.
- Science: Statewide science achievement continues to progress, with student proficiency increasing by nearly two percentage points since 2024.
- Social Studies: Results in middle school show a nearly four percentage point increase in social studies.
Strong school leadership is coherent and sustained. School reform often amounts to a constant churn of initiatives that educators deflect by closing their doors and telling one another, “This too shall pass.” In Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee, you don’t see this. Instead, there’s a series of reinforcing policies and practices that point in the same direction. These states aren’t subjecting educators to the whiplash and fad-chasing that are the hallmarks of “reform.” Chaos turns out to be a lousy recipe for school improvement.
Southern Surge states also proved that more money does not necessarily mean better education. Consider the comparison from National Review below:
Moreover, to the consternation of so many advocates, academics, and union honchos, the Southern surge teaches an inconvenient lesson about school spending. In Louisiana, between the 2014–15 and 2023–24 school years, after-inflation spending increased 27 percent, to $17,500 per pupil. Spending was up 8 percent, to $12,500, in Mississippi; 5 percent, to $12,600, in Tennessee; and 14 percent, to $13,200, in Alabama. This is not a story of big bucks. Consider that in Illinois, per-pupil spending was $21,700 in 2023–24, up 19 percent over the past decade. In Massachusetts, it was up 19 percent, to $26,100; 30 percent, to $19,000, in California; and 12 percent, to $31,514, in New York. For those convinced that the key to school improvement is always more money, the Southern surge is, shall we say, unhelpful.
We’re proud to see Tennessee rise to the top in education by returning to common-sense policies and rejecting woke ideology. We hope the rest of the nation can learn from the Southern Surge!
